Weather: With climate change, is France threatened by a major hurricane?

Even though France is located on the Atlantic coast, it is not directly affected by tropical hurricanes. These storms generally form around the Caribbean or the American coasts. They then move northward as autumn approaches, but French beaches are currently still too far away.

As they cross the Atlantic, hurricanes encounter colder waters. This reduces their strength and often transforms them into ex-tropical storms. These sometimes reach southwestern France, but they remain far less destructive than tropical hurricanes.

Even when weakened, these storms can retain significant intensity. Some have already caused material damage in Western Europe, such as the 1999 storm. They can strike violently, but they do not have the same structure as a hurricane.

Climate change could, however, alter this situation. The warming of Atlantic waters would create more favorable conditions for the formation of more powerful and frequent hurricanes near the coasts of the old continent.

In an interview with the newspaper Sud-Ouest , Stella Bourdin, a climatologist at Oxford University, sought to downplay these fears. She stated that the occurrence of a hurricane in France remained "extremely unlikely" .

Stella Bourdin also clarified that scientists were not observing "an expansion of the tropics to our latitudes ." According to her, this natural barrier prevents hurricanes from reaching mainland France. The risk exists, but it remains very low.